Bitcoin Faces 2019-Style Bearish Pattern Amid Fed Policy Concerns
Bitcoin (BTC) may be mirroring its 2019 bearish cycle, according to prominent crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen. In a recent YouTube video, Cowen told his 887,000 subscribers that historical correlations between Bitcoin and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy suggest BTC could struggle to break through key resistance levels.
At the core of his analysis is Bitcoin’s bull market support band, a technical indicator formed by the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).
💬 "I think the reason why that 2019 comparison comes back to haunt Bitcoin fairly frequently is because of the monetary policy by the Federal Reserve," Cowen explained.
During 2019, the Fed engaged in quantitative tightening (QT), a process where it reduced liquidity in financial markets. Cowen argues that this same tightening cycle is currently in play, contributing to Bitcoin’s struggle below the bull market support band.
Macroeconomic Pressures Weigh on Bitcoin
🔻 Fed’s QT & Economic Weakness – The Atlanta Fed recently forecasted a potential negative GDP in Q1, increasing fears of a slowing economy.
🔻 Tariffs & Inflation Concerns – Ongoing trade disputes and persistent inflationary pressures have heightened market uncertainty.
🔻 Stock Market Sell-Off – Bitcoin has shown strong correlations with the S&P 500, meaning a continued equity market downturn could delay any BTC recovery.
Can the S&P 500 Save Bitcoin?
Cowen highlights that Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim its bull market support band may depend on whether the S&P 500 stabilizes following last week’s sharp stock sell-off.
📈 Best-Case Scenario: The S&P 500 finds a local low by mid-March or early April, allowing Bitcoin to regain momentum.
📉 Worst-Case Scenario: If equity markets continue their downtrend, BTC could remain under pressure for weeks or months.
💬 "If you’re trying to figure out when Bitcoin could rally back up, it’s going to depend on when the S&P 500 finds a local low," Cowen concluded.
