Ethereum's MVRV Z-Score Suggests Undervaluation—Is a Bull Run Incoming?
Ethereum's market value relative to its realized value is nearing historical undervaluation levels, suggesting a potential price rebound could be on the horizon.
Frankfurt, March 6, 2025 — Ethereum's MVRV Z-Score is approaching the green zone, historically associated with undervaluation, according to recent data. This metric compares Ethereum's market value to its realized value and has predicted previous bull runs with remarkable accuracy.
Historical Context
The last time the MVRV Z-Score hit similar levels was in October 2023, just before Ethereum rebounded by nearly 160% toward the $4,000 milestone. Similarly, dips to the green zone in December 2022 and March 2020 preceded historic bull runs.
On-Chain Data Signals Accumulation
CryptoQuant data reveals that daily ETH inflows into accumulation addresses have spiked to their highest level in years. This suggests that institutional investors and long-term holders are aggressively accumulating ETH while its MVRV Z-Score remains undervalued.
Ethereum's on-chain data tracking whale addresses supports this trend. Whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH have been accumulating since July 2024, coinciding with the launch of multiple Ether-specific spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US.
Price Analysis
As of March 6, Ethereum is trading near $2,291, testing the lower trendline support of the symmetrical triangle and the 200-week EMA ($2,294). This support confluence increases the likelihood of a strong rebound from current levels.
Key resistance levels include:
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$2,518 (0.382 Fib retracement)
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$3,000 (0.5 Fib retracement)
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$3,420 (0.618 Fib retracement)
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$4,063 (0.786 Fib retracement)
A decisive break above these levels could set the stage for a retest of the triangle's upper boundary near $4,063. Conversely, a break below the lower trendline could risk a decline toward $1,050.
Conclusion
The confluence of undervaluation metrics, whale accumulation, and technical indicators suggests that Ethereum could be poised for a significant price movement in 2025. Investors and traders are closely watching for confirmation of a bullish breakout or a breakdown that could define the asset's trajectory for the coming months.
